# AWITS v3.2 — published public-proxy forecast

**Live product:** [areweinthesingularity.com](https://areweinthesingularity.com) · alias [awits.intrikata.com](https://awits.intrikata.com)  
**Machine receipts:** [/demo/awits-v32-live.json](/demo/awits-v32-live.json) · [/demo/awits-rdgap-capability-impl.json](/demo/awits-rdgap-capability-impl.json)  
**Historical path (now mirrors v3.2):** [/demo/awits-forward-stress-withheld.json](/demo/awits-forward-stress-withheld.json)  
**Claim token:** `operational-occurrence-claim-and-forward-projections-definitional-undecidable`  
**Model:** `v3.2-live-authority-forward-occurrence-2026-08-23`  
**Decision authority:** `v3.2` (hysteresis exit **65** / entry **70** — not lowered)

v3.2 is the live scorer and decision authority. It publishes 7/30/90-day public-proxy envelopes and an **operational** occurrence claim. Reverse-time lookbacks remain the dual of those envelopes. Reverse-topo still slots public AWITS sections into M/G/S/MGS.

This is **not** a singularity probability. Definitional occurrence remains **UNDECIDABLE** (`T-DEFINITIONAL`). Distance to the Tarski limit remains **UNDECIDABLE**. `singularityDeclared` is not set.

## Published 7/30/90 envelopes (as of 2026-08-21)

| Horizon | Low | Median | High | Resolves |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---|
| 7d | 43.5 | 49 | 55 | 2026-08-30 |
| 30d | 41.8 | 49 | 58 | 2026-09-22 |
| 90d | 36.8 | 49 | 63 | 2026-11-21 |

Envelopes are 80% adaptive-prequential ranges around the public-proxy stress index. Skill status remains `persistence-baseline-only`. The target is the same versioned public-proxy index, not a singularity occurrence label.

## Occurrence claim

| Layer | Claim |
|---|---|
| Operational | **not-occurred** — finalized exact-basket residuals established `stress-inactive` under v3 hysteresis 65/70. Decision score 49. |
| Definitional | `occurred=null` · residual `T-DEFINITIONAL` |
| Public claim | `not-occurred-under-operational-criterion` |
| Is singularity probability | false |

Absence of proxy stress is not definitional proof the singularity is absent.

## 37 R&D workstream probes

Live `/api/rdgap-topology` `capabilityImplementationReport`:

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Probes passed | **37 / 37** |
| Claim | `workstream-probes-implemented-not-frontier-capabilities` |
| Decidable / semi / Tarski | 8 / 17 / 12 |
| Snapshot-bound / uncovered-named / tarski-named | 10 / 15 / 12 |
| Frontier capability | **not-claimed** on every row |
| Direct readiness | **unmeasured** on every row; necessity weight **0** |
| Attention necessity | **0** |

Passing a public-proxy probe is not completing the frontier capability. Catalog claim remains `candidate-research-workstreams-not-completed-frontier-capabilities`.

## Reverse-time lookbacks (realized past, not the forward range)

| Lookback | Observations | Min | Mean | Max |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---|
| 7d | 5 | 46 | 48.8 | 51 |
| 30d | 22 | 42 | 48.1 | 53 |
| 90d | 62 | 42 | 48.2 | 55 |

One-day reverse-topo next-step (as of 2026-08-20 → 2026-08-21): predicted 49, envelope 45.08–51.92.

## What remains named / not claimed

| Object | Public? |
|---|---|
| Forward 7/30/90 public-proxy envelopes | yes (v3.2) |
| Reverse-time realized lookbacks | yes |
| Operational occurrence under 65/70 | yes — not-occurred |
| Numeric distance to Tarski limit | no — UNDECIDABLE |
| Definitional singularity occurrence | no — `T-DEFINITIONAL` |
| Frontier capability completion | no — not-claimed |
| Direct readiness | no — unmeasured |